I don't see any change in the underlying fundamentals in physical silver between today and 29 January. You still can't buy it locally where I am - Perth Mint has suspended taking orders for a month - and if you can buy it from local dealers at all, the buy price hasn't changed between today and 29 January. They are still asking the pre-crash price. The only thing that has changed is the sell price.
At this point, sentiment to buy silver is still very strong. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see silver move sideways for a while to form a base after this shakeout. The key reason I believe silver can continue to rise after this correction is the supply–demand story. Physical supply remains tight: delays in delivering physical silver, very wide bid–ask spreads, and in many places it’s still hard to source real metal. That’s usually not what a “crash” in physical fundamentals looks like.
Also now, investments into refining and industrial capacity in the US (multi-billion dollar projects) point to strong long-term industrial demand for silver. Paper prices can swing short-term, but the physical market is telling a different story.
That all depends on your timeframe. As for me, I don’t have a specific price where I’m waiting to get in. My honest take is that the easy gains are gone, and I’d want to see more signs of price stabilization first. Not financial advice though!
Well, especially with the shortage, it's significantly different than what every writer from the Silver Squeeze team writes. Behind them are the modern Hunt brothers. Silver is estimated at 2 billion ounces in free float. Consumption is falling, and recycling technology is significantly improving on previous years' results. In such a small market, it is not difficult to create a physical shortage given today's volume of money.
Well. In today's world, it is impossible to predict fundamentals. It is a fairy tale for fools who do not understand how the market works and who is behind it. Fundamentals do exist, of course, but they end halfway down the road to greed. Those who do not know how to manage money and dream of eternal "home runs" will never make money on the stock market.
We'll see what happens. Today, all the fundamentals are completely visible (once mysterious and secret) and controlled by politicians. This means that even the most honest analyst without insider information is unable to determine the long-term direction. Politicians are interested in high salaries, banks in profits. It's a sad world. Only one rule works, and it's the oldest rule in the market: Buy low, sell high.. God bless!
Warsh is going to lower rates and print. This is the perfect environment to own silver in, they are literally about to hyperinflate the dollar. What you saw last week was 2.5x annual silver supply traded in paper not physical. Silver spot price is trading over $100 in asia. Over 5 years of supply deficits. None of these fundamentals can be changed by trading paper silver. This market is dislocated and going to be trading much higher later this year. Selling here is poor advice. You don't sell the breakout level retest of a 45 year cup and handle pattern.
"Take your profits before its too late.", "Kevin Warsh is coming", "Technical setup similar to past setups" and bla bla bla. So what? A lot of FUD together and no mention of the compelling fundamentals and the physical squeeze that sent the prices higher in the First place. If you so confident in your analysis to the point of giving Financial advice, sell silver short yourself and print screen your trade. Show some skin in the game. Thanks!
Fundamentals don’t prevent overextended markets from correcting. They often explain why people stay in too long. This isn’t financial advice, it’s my opinion and risk assessment. Being cautious doesn’t require going short.
I also discussed fundamentals a bit in a silver article from a few days earlier if you want to check that out. Cheers
The fiat cartel just nuked the paper silver market with a complicit CFTC like they've done for decades. So lets get it right: This was not a CORRECTION. This was an EXECUTION, a blatant conspiracy FACT. Check the forensics. Hopefully these criminals are now running on borrowed time as their day of reckoning approaches.
Warsh is going to lower rates and print. This is the perfect environment to own silver in, they are literally about to hyperinflate the dollar. What you saw last week was 2.5x annual silver supply traded in paper not physical. Silver spot price is trading over $100 in asia. Over 5 years of supply deficits. None of these fundamentals can be changed by trading paper silver. This market is dislocated and going to be trading much higher later this year. Selling here is poor advice. You don't sell the breakout level retest of a 45 year cup and handle pattern.
We’ll see! I’m not denying a bounce or anything. I just don’t think the upside potential is as clean now as it was before. BUT on the other hand, we didn’t end up closing under Friday’s low, so that’s good for the bulls at least
Looks like a gap down day. wow. Despite all the chinese buyers of physical, supply constraints, industrial demand. Someone doesn't like the price. No worries, I guess they are printing more dollars.
Simple test: after the dust settles, try and buy real silver at the Comex price, can you? The answer is "no", so what is the real price instead? Well, look at the Chinese prices, they don't bother with paper, so that's the real price. Look what happened on Tuesday, prices heading right back up. Glad we bought the dip, many times over
An interesting contrarian take with some very valid arguments. Question is what to rotate into that will not be debased by money printing and allows you to keep your wealth outside of the corrupt financial system ( great taking )
Structural shortage clmpared toxrising demand over the long term will have a big impact on real price. Short term volatility due to silver being a small market ?
The historical parallels you've drawn are compelling. What makes this situation worse than typical corrections is the convergence of multiple bearish factors - the technical breakdown, increased margin requirements, and policy uncertainty all arriving simultaneously. The 2011 and 1980 comparisons are particularly apt because they show how parabolic moves in silver tend to resolve violently, not gradually. The dead-cat bounce pattern you identified suggests market participants haven't fully accepted the new reality yet.
We will see, I suppose.
I don't see any change in the underlying fundamentals in physical silver between today and 29 January. You still can't buy it locally where I am - Perth Mint has suspended taking orders for a month - and if you can buy it from local dealers at all, the buy price hasn't changed between today and 29 January. They are still asking the pre-crash price. The only thing that has changed is the sell price.
At this point, sentiment to buy silver is still very strong. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see silver move sideways for a while to form a base after this shakeout. The key reason I believe silver can continue to rise after this correction is the supply–demand story. Physical supply remains tight: delays in delivering physical silver, very wide bid–ask spreads, and in many places it’s still hard to source real metal. That’s usually not what a “crash” in physical fundamentals looks like.
Also now, investments into refining and industrial capacity in the US (multi-billion dollar projects) point to strong long-term industrial demand for silver. Paper prices can swing short-term, but the physical market is telling a different story.
Thank you and @gregj3 for the non-emotional, logical responses! (Seriously) 😂
Those are fair points, and I agree physical markets can stay tight even during corrections. My caution is more about timing and price behavior.
But I’m curious what you guys make of this? ⬇️
https://substack.com/@investorscompass/note/c-205052668?r=1z6jd5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I’m waiting for a good entry point for silver. What’s your suggestion sir?
That all depends on your timeframe. As for me, I don’t have a specific price where I’m waiting to get in. My honest take is that the easy gains are gone, and I’d want to see more signs of price stabilization first. Not financial advice though!
Well, especially with the shortage, it's significantly different than what every writer from the Silver Squeeze team writes. Behind them are the modern Hunt brothers. Silver is estimated at 2 billion ounces in free float. Consumption is falling, and recycling technology is significantly improving on previous years' results. In such a small market, it is not difficult to create a physical shortage given today's volume of money.
Good point on market size. Thin markets are likely why silver tends to overshoot and then unwind violently
Well. In today's world, it is impossible to predict fundamentals. It is a fairy tale for fools who do not understand how the market works and who is behind it. Fundamentals do exist, of course, but they end halfway down the road to greed. Those who do not know how to manage money and dream of eternal "home runs" will never make money on the stock market.
Appreciate the perspective, and I agree that eternal home runs can be risky
We'll see what happens. Today, all the fundamentals are completely visible (once mysterious and secret) and controlled by politicians. This means that even the most honest analyst without insider information is unable to determine the long-term direction. Politicians are interested in high salaries, banks in profits. It's a sad world. Only one rule works, and it's the oldest rule in the market: Buy low, sell high.. God bless!
Warsh is going to lower rates and print. This is the perfect environment to own silver in, they are literally about to hyperinflate the dollar. What you saw last week was 2.5x annual silver supply traded in paper not physical. Silver spot price is trading over $100 in asia. Over 5 years of supply deficits. None of these fundamentals can be changed by trading paper silver. This market is dislocated and going to be trading much higher later this year. Selling here is poor advice. You don't sell the breakout level retest of a 45 year cup and handle pattern.
"Take your profits before its too late.", "Kevin Warsh is coming", "Technical setup similar to past setups" and bla bla bla. So what? A lot of FUD together and no mention of the compelling fundamentals and the physical squeeze that sent the prices higher in the First place. If you so confident in your analysis to the point of giving Financial advice, sell silver short yourself and print screen your trade. Show some skin in the game. Thanks!
Fundamentals don’t prevent overextended markets from correcting. They often explain why people stay in too long. This isn’t financial advice, it’s my opinion and risk assessment. Being cautious doesn’t require going short.
I also discussed fundamentals a bit in a silver article from a few days earlier if you want to check that out. Cheers
The fiat cartel just nuked the paper silver market with a complicit CFTC like they've done for decades. So lets get it right: This was not a CORRECTION. This was an EXECUTION, a blatant conspiracy FACT. Check the forensics. Hopefully these criminals are now running on borrowed time as their day of reckoning approaches.
I see your view. Thanks for your take. We’ll see what happens
Warsh is going to lower rates and print. This is the perfect environment to own silver in, they are literally about to hyperinflate the dollar. What you saw last week was 2.5x annual silver supply traded in paper not physical. Silver spot price is trading over $100 in asia. Over 5 years of supply deficits. None of these fundamentals can be changed by trading paper silver. This market is dislocated and going to be trading much higher later this year. Selling here is poor advice. You don't sell the breakout level retest of a 45 year cup and handle pattern.
Not so sure about that. the price has been recovering. It will explode again, once gold starts hitting new highs again.
We’ll see! I’m not denying a bounce or anything. I just don’t think the upside potential is as clean now as it was before. BUT on the other hand, we didn’t end up closing under Friday’s low, so that’s good for the bulls at least
Looks like a gap down day. wow. Despite all the chinese buyers of physical, supply constraints, industrial demand. Someone doesn't like the price. No worries, I guess they are printing more dollars.
Simple test: after the dust settles, try and buy real silver at the Comex price, can you? The answer is "no", so what is the real price instead? Well, look at the Chinese prices, they don't bother with paper, so that's the real price. Look what happened on Tuesday, prices heading right back up. Glad we bought the dip, many times over
An interesting contrarian take with some very valid arguments. Question is what to rotate into that will not be debased by money printing and allows you to keep your wealth outside of the corrupt financial system ( great taking )
Well written!
Structural shortage clmpared toxrising demand over the long term will have a big impact on real price. Short term volatility due to silver being a small market ?
The historical parallels you've drawn are compelling. What makes this situation worse than typical corrections is the convergence of multiple bearish factors - the technical breakdown, increased margin requirements, and policy uncertainty all arriving simultaneously. The 2011 and 1980 comparisons are particularly apt because they show how parabolic moves in silver tend to resolve violently, not gradually. The dead-cat bounce pattern you identified suggests market participants haven't fully accepted the new reality yet.